Lies, damned lies and statistics

Mark Twain

The quotation "Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is attributed to Mark Twain.

Doing dishes I overhead A explaining that the chance of my daughter-in-law having had three girls in a row was 1 in 8 and yet, should she be pregnant again, the chance of the next child being a girl was only 50%. Mathematics which I cannot eschew. But J could not believe this logic. The flaws, of course, are that the statements give no credence to providence and that laws of chance are hardly application to isolated events. And thus many folk use statistics to lie.

Even though I saw that under the sun the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, nor bread to the wise, nor riches to the intelligent, nor favor to those with knowledge, but time and chance happen to them all.

How easy it is for me to live a lie. Onlookers call this hypocrisy but I know it is my comfort zone. The story is told, long ago, of a man who chopped down a choice tree: half he used to build a fire to warm himself and cook a meal; the rest he fashioned an idol from to which he prayed saying "Deliver me, for you are my God". The teller observes that the man seems unaware of and cannot deliver himself from the "lie in his right hand". Sure, I couldn't carve an idol if tried - but I know about that lie - not all of what I purport to be is truth. There is too much trash and tinsel.

I'd like to be like Stephen who "looked steadfastly to heaven" whilst his persecutors lobbed rocks at him. But maybe the two things go together and I don't like the idea of the rocks - I'm too much of a coward. To make this point (for those that care to listen) for this Thursday's American themed fancy dress I plan to go as Little Plum:

And as for luck, for which chance is sometimes mistaken - "Daughter," said the Hermit, "I have now lived a hundred and nine winters in this world and have never yet met any such thing as Luck. Them is something about all this that I do not understand: but if ever we need to know it, you may be sure that we shall."