Face masks forever

It's not that I think face masks are totally ineffective in preventing the spread of Covid-19. But probably they are more of a statement of conformity and a reminder for others to "keep their distance" than having any real benefit. It's pretty clear that they do not stop all emanation of droplets from the wearer's nose or mouth but arguably they might direct airflow to the sides and thus away from... well that depends on where the objects of contamination are standing...

And then there is the argument that a mask will harbour nasties and thus exacerbate the problem. I've spoken to a qualified nurse involved on the front line and she pointed out that medics should replace their mask every 2 hours to mitigate this effect, thus clearly admitting this problem. Meanwhile the rest of us indefinitely re-use our single-use masks.

There is a considerable degree of absurdity about the whole issue of face masks.  There is also a deal of misunderstanding like a neighbour I noticed mowing her rear lawn whilst wearing a face mask. Or a cyclist passing me wearing a face mask. Presumably they mistakenly think it will protect them? But I reckon the following examples take the absurdity ticket.

I happened upon a Youtube video of Gustavo Dudamel conducting Mahler's Adagietto from Symphony No. 5. to an empty outside auditorium. All the musicians were not only socially distanced but also wearing face masks! In that video there were only strings and a harp but take a look at these pictures below that I grabbed from the internet. An apt comment on one web site was: How useless , ridiculous and humiliating for the poor musicians who are ready to accept these inhuman conditions in order to keep their job and continue their passion.

Note some but not all examples seek to cover all the exit holes as well as nose and mouth. You have to at least give these ones 10/10 for effort, even if there is little chance of any efficacy. 

Elegance

Elegance - the beauty of an idea characterised by minimalism and intuitiveness while preserving exactness and precision.

Complex - not simple, easy or straightforward. A Complex system is one that has multiple paths to multiple answers.

So now I've learnt how to make Julia sets.  Using the same colour palette as for my Mandelbrots here are a couple of my home made images. Of course there are far better ones on the internet, but I'm pretty pleased that I have even got this far. 

The Julia and Mandelbrot sets are mathematically very similar, so my program can generate either. The maths is so very simple - elegant indeed. But the resulting fractal images are complex, anything but simple. And there's the rub - the conjunction, the juxtaposition, the synergy of elegance and complexity. We see it again and again - the human body for one - such complexity from relative simplicity of DNA. The 90 or so naturally occurring chemical elements that are each made up of so few elementary particles (the periodic table and all that) giving rise to such diversity of materials and, indeed, life. How such a vast assortment of vividly coloured flowers are created from dirt, water and sunlight. Water gushing over a precipice: any student can calculate its maximum rise in temperature as it falls, but how to predict its impact as you swim beneath its fall?. And of course the much maligned "butterfly effect".

For those interested but too idle to google for themselves, the Mandelbrot set is the set of points c on the complex plane (aka Argand diagram) for which the iteration formula is bounded (z does not fly off to infinity), starting with z = 0.  There is a Julia set for every point c in the Mandelbrot set and it is the set of points z on the complex plane for which the same iteration formula is bounded, starting with z = that point. It can be proved (so I am told) that if, during the iteration, the modulus of  z exceeds 2, then z is bound to be unbounded: we need iterate no further. For cases that never or are slow to reach that stage, the iteration ought to go on ad infinitum - in practice such a requirement is onerous, and instead one sets an arbitrary limit of the number of iterations, for example 500.

Here's two of my favourite Mandelbrot zooms:

A trip to infinity - 2 hours 

The deepest hard zoom at 100,000,000 iterations - zoom depth 10^2126

The guys who create such videos (God bless them) have access to better software than mine but even so take perhaps a month or more of computer time to do the job. Not for the faint hearted or those of us with other more pressing calls on our time!

My brain still has problems understanding how so much complexity is bound up in so simple an equation.

This, my interest in Mandelbrot et al, started when reading an article about deep learning. Deep learning is AI (artificial intelligence) on steroids. The mechanics is based on a neural network (i.e. that tries to mimic how the human brain works). Faced with a complex task, for example recognising a particular face in a picture of a crowd, rather than trying to figure out software code that analyses the face you "simply" show the deep-learning-thing (DLT) zillions of pictures of the face in question from many angles and in many circumstances and with varying expressions.  Then when faced with the picture to be analysed, the DLT does a sort of mathematical correlation with all the pictures it has been shown and comes up with a score, a likelihood of each face in the picture being the one. Etc. A very different way of approaching software and clearly akin to what goes on in the brain (for those of use lucky enough to have one). Deep learning is the in-thing at the moment.  If you are young and mentally supple enough to get a grasp of all this, I'd imagine that designing these DLT's is the way to go. Or if interested in investing your fortunes, investing in DLT's might prove profitable. 

Deeping learning, complex systems, AI, chaotic systems, fractals (e.g. the Koch snowflake which has infinite perimeter and yet a finite area.  Plenty here to keep me amused for many a let's-avoid-Covid evening.

Lake run

The COVID-19 lockdown rulebook in Ireland says outside exercise must be within 2km of home, and suggests a maximum of an hour or so.

That rules out the hills (we call them mountains) which are just the other side of the lake, but the bridge over the lake at the bottom of our road is well within the limit.

Yesterday I ventured out along the lakeshore from the bridge - I figured that once off the road I was also off the radar as there are no dwellings or worn human routes that you intersect once away from the bridge, but instead a lot of mud. So I successfully made it around the Kings River end of the lake, fording the river (it was up to my waist) rather than swimming as the present level is high-ish and I am not a confident swimmer.

In the event, as I neared the bridge on my return, I did meet one family group and duly passed them with 2m separation.

I'm hoping the 2km limit will at least be extended come May 5th. Once on the mountains and away from human habitation, who cares about limits? Unless sheep are susceptible.

I'm a grandfather (again)

New Bailey infant aka Joey

My Australian daughter K has finally produced. It had to be a C-section but both mother and baby girl are fine.  Hitherto we have referred to her as "Joey" and as of yet we have no official name, so you can see the tag merely says BAILEY. We were to visit sometime in May but the coronavirus has put a stop to that.

We are now told to stay at home - except shopping for food or brief exercise but no further than 2km. This we suppose is a radius not total distance. I've had to modify by usual run to comply, and longer weekend excursions are no longer possible.

We are not allowed to visit another dwelling, so we get to see our grandchildren or their parents only occasionally and outside at a suitable distance, which is kind of weird.

Our sub-group in the "courtyard", which is a dwelling joined to but separate from the main house where we are, has three children who leave their bikes and play things in the outside area common to our and their group, so one needs to keep a mental note of what belongs to which group for fear of accidentally touching it.

And yet no-one in any our four sub-groups have virus symptoms so all these precautions are probably technically unnecessary.  We have food and drink, and warmth, and a roof over our heads, for all of this we are very thankful knowing that there are many worldwide that are deprived, for example as in India at the moment.

So far there are oodles of small maintenance jobs on our property to keep me from idleness.

They said these stricter restrictions will be until Easter but it's looking like it might be longer. As to when long haul flights and entry into Australia become possible, who can say?

Lock-down

Yesterday, as a community we decided to isolate our four dwelling places with immediate effect. There were of course many practical issues to sort out as hitherto we were used to sharing resources.

This morning I woke to a strange feeling. The world has become an emptier, quieter place. And my daughter and son and their families, though living just down the road, have become isolated from each other and from us. No more grandpa stories of Sally-Anne and Smokey the dragon.

Even stranger, cognisant of the very sensible advice to wash hands often and thoroughly, I happened this morning to read from Mark chapter 7. Was this just coincidental?

...the Pharisees... saw that some of his disciples ate with hands that were defiled, that is, unwashed. (For the Pharisees and all the Jews do not eat unless they wash their hands properly, holding to the tradition of the elders, and when they come from the marketplace, they do not eat unless they wash. And there are many other traditions that they observe, such as the washing of cups and pots and copper vessels and dining couches.) And the Pharisees and the scribes asked him, "Why do your disciples not walk according to the tradition of the elders, but eat with defiled hands?" ...

And he said to them, "Then are you also without understanding? Do you not see that whatever goes into a person from outside cannot defile him, since it enters not his heart but his stomach, and is expelled?" (Thus he declared all foods clean.) And he said, "What comes out of a person is what defiles him. 

As I gaze out of the window: a lovely day, blue sky and warm enough in the sun, it seems like three disparate realms are meeting in my head. The wonder of nature, the elusive spiritual world of faith and hoped for miracles, and what the news is throwing at us. And somewhere in all three realms the COVID-19 virus is lurking.

It's not that I am afraid. But I'd like a better understanding. For example we had a time of prayer after our evening meal and one person asked God to help the researchers find a vaccine quickly. And, critical as ever, I thought - why not ask Him to simply end this plague?

The birds are still singing

The governments of the world are at their wits end, employers are dismissing staff, many shops are closed, there are limited transport options, food shortages and general instability. We are daily bombarded with coronavirus news casts. Conspiracy theories abound and it is sometimes hard to know what or who to believe.  Although on the plus side there are encouraging stories of altruism like Donegal chefs providing free meals for the elderly.

And yet I look up and see birds still flying. The sun is still shining. The mountains are still beckoning me. And life goes on, albeit restricted in certain areas. So far we are still healthy. I'm still barefoot running.  And so I did - my first foray this year to Church Mountain

My track: 15 miles, 822m height gain

I met a number of groups and a few single folk - more that I would normally expect even for a sunny Sunday afternoon. Lots of traffic on the Wicklow gap road. You'll see in my photos three groups in the cairn on the top. And the Gardai had to close Glendalough because there were two many tourists flouting the distance rule.

And the future... who knows?  Some say the world will never be the same. And we have to believe that God is in control.

Looking back on the way up

Almost at the top - our lake in the distance

Two groups on the cairn

A third group on the right

View from the top

More views

Our lake

Scalp aka Slievecorragh

My path turned into a stream

More cars parked at base than usual

St Kevin's Way, Hollywood