Irish Weather Forecasting

For an honest mortal to be a weather forecaster in the UK or Ireland must be a depressing task. If they were to forecast the very same thing every day of the year (like, "changeable") they might be no worse than trying to predict. But they have got around some of the bother by, instead of simply telling us it will rain tomorrow, stating a percentage likelihood of precipitation. So yesterday I think the percentage hovered around 10%. Any percentage other than 0% or 100% is of course bound to be correct, and even at 100% it only has to precipitate one drop to satisfy. On my long run yesterday the 10% became, for where I was, absolute certainty for about half an hour, as indeed it did two weeks previously and for longer that time. Maybe there's something about me and barefoot running. I also seem to attract vehicles that converge from both directions and want to pass just where I am, forcing me onto the verge: anyone would think roads were made for cars.

The national forecaster Met Éireann resolves its forecasts only by province (there are four) but web sites such as Accuweather (which I no longer frequent because it keeps forgetting my preferences and defaulting to the quaint and less logical American Fahrenheit and 12-hour clock systems) and Weather Underground claim to refine their forecasts more locally e.g. Valleymount in my case. But whether (or weather) such distinction is significant I know not.

Thus we have the weather system at large, some mighty computer someplace that does the predictions and various services that present this information often very verbosely to the man in the street. Who has the task of interpreting this data - like, taking a large brush and smoothing it all out to extract a summary like: "it just might be a bit wetter and warmer tomorrow", or "there's a chance of frost tonight". Or possibly not. Which generally a quick look at the clouds and thermometer would have told him.

In search of rain

The weather forecasts have been predicting thundery rain storms for the past couple of weeks and I wait in anticipation.  True there has been occasional precipitation but - well take yesterday (from whence come the first three pictures). The forecast was for 21mm of rain to fall mostly in the last afternoon. So I timed my run for as late as feasible hoping to enjoy a shower. True it did rain an eensy weenie bit, but not the considerable downpour 21mm suggested. I was checking the rain radar maps before my run and there were storms all around Blessington lake but none just where I was.

Unusual dog who tailed me all the way from home and then disappeared

Unusual view of storm brewing over Blessington

Unusual vegetation on Blessington lake shore

I repeated the exercise today. The forecast predicted rain early afternoon so that's when I set out. I watched the clouds, tried to predict from the direction they were travelling, then gave up the unequal challenge and decided instead to have a luxurious swim and then lie in the sun to dry before setting off again.

Unusual view (for me, lying on beach enjoying the sun)

Which only goes to show that, in spite of the accolade "Emerald Isle", in fact it does not often rain in Ireland. Well, not when you want it to.  I run four times a week at fairly predictable times and it is unusual to experience rainfall.