Irish Weather Forecasting

For an honest mortal to be a weather forecaster in the UK or Ireland must be a depressing task. If they were to forecast the very same thing every day of the year (like, "changeable") they might be no worse than trying to predict. But they have got around some of the bother by, instead of simply telling us it will rain tomorrow, stating a percentage likelihood of precipitation. So yesterday I think the percentage hovered around 10%. Any percentage other than 0% or 100% is of course bound to be correct, and even at 100% it only has to precipitate one drop to satisfy. On my long run yesterday the 10% became, for where I was, absolute certainty for about half an hour, as indeed it did two weeks previously and for longer that time. Maybe there's something about me and barefoot running. I also seem to attract vehicles that converge from both directions and want to pass just where I am, forcing me onto the verge: anyone would think roads were made for cars.

The national forecaster Met Éireann resolves its forecasts only by province (there are four) but web sites such as Accuweather (which I no longer frequent because it keeps forgetting my preferences and defaulting to the quaint and less logical American Fahrenheit and 12-hour clock systems) and Weather Underground claim to refine their forecasts more locally e.g. Valleymount in my case. But whether (or weather) such distinction is significant I know not.

Thus we have the weather system at large, some mighty computer someplace that does the predictions and various services that present this information often very verbosely to the man in the street. Who has the task of interpreting this data - like, taking a large brush and smoothing it all out to extract a summary like: "it just might be a bit wetter and warmer tomorrow", or "there's a chance of frost tonight". Or possibly not. Which generally a quick look at the clouds and thermometer would have told him.

Here comes the fog

5pm - Fog descends

Accuweather said it would be cold to start with, but mostly sunny and rising to about 8degC by early afternoon. Armed with this prophecy I took to the road on my trusty velocipede intending to visit the Curragh and Corbally harbour and maybe explore the Liffey and its various nearby canals. Leaving at 11:30 the weather looked promising, but half way between Ardenode and Brannockstown I hit a wall of fog and the temperature dropped and I got exceedingly cold. So I shortened my route and basically chased the fog back home for a late lunch.

Later in the afternoon I took Meg for my usual constitutional and hit the wall of fog again, this time only a mile away. On returning and after a hot bath I checked Accuweather again. By 5pm the fog had reached home.

It now said "fog will clear by lunch". My calculation is that the wall of fog was actually travelling towards us all day from the west at about 2mph. So much for forecasts.

Sausages and chips soon - that'll drive the fog away!.